2021年冰冻圈状况报告(State of the Cryosphere 2021 Report)

  • 有些人可能从未听说过冰冻圈这个词,但大多数人都知道地球上季节性或全年都被冰雪覆盖的地方。与地球上其他任何地方相比,冰冻圈中的气候变化发生得更快、更剧烈。第一份冰冻圈状况报告已经发布,并且每年都会发布,直到 2030 年,由近 50 位领先的冰冻圈科学家审查和支持,其中一半以上是政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 的作者。
cop26.jpg
来自 iccinet.org 的插图照片。
 

挪威水研究所(NIVA)气候与海洋首席科学家、华东师范大学教授Richard Bellerby教授是该报告的签署人,也是报告第6章的科学审稿人,涵盖极地海洋酸化、变暖和清新。 

Bellerby 教授在 COP26 的北欧和冰冻圈展馆的四场不同活动中展示了他的报告发现(相关活动链接和页面如下)。 

“很明显,极地海洋的各个领域都在发生快速变化。如果不立即减少净二氧化碳排放量,这些极地系统将在我们有生之年无法辨认,并且需要数千年才能恢复到原始状态,”Bellerby 教授在参加 COP26 时说。

该报告阐明了冰冻圈中发生的不同动态,并总结了当前实施的国家承诺或国家自主贡献 (NDC) 和政策将产生的灾难性影响。 

报告中提到的冰冻圈科学家的理解包括:

  • 如果允许这些冰冻圈变化继续下去,将在所有人类时间尺度上永久存在;
  • 许多(也许是大多数)这些本质上永久性的变化已经由《巴黎协定》中的 2°C 最高气温上升触发,但如果我们保持接近理想的 1.5°C 目标,则可能会放缓或可能避免;和
  • 包括人类社区损失和破坏在内的影响是全球性的,而且规模巨大。

报告中还规定了所有动态的恢复时间,而且并不令人震惊,“除北极海冰外,所有这些动态都需要恢复到工业化前的温度——或更低——才能至少实现一定程度的有意义的恢复。”

冰冻圈目前发生的不同动态及其在报告中显示的估计恢复时间如下:

  • 极地海洋酸化、变暖和清新 → 50,000-70,000 年
  • 冰盖和海平面上升 → 10,000 多年
  • 山地冰川和积雪 → 几百年到一千年以上
  • 多年冻土→几千年
  • 北极海冰 → 几十年到几百年

海洋酸化使生活更加困难

根据该报告,“海洋酸化将危害海洋腹足类动物和翼足类动物、海胆、蛤蜊和螃蟹等关键生物”,因为海洋酸化使贝壳动物(由碳酸钙制成)和所有极地水体的生活变得更加困难。数百万年来已经适应稳定 pH 条件的居住生物。酸化发生的速度是问题的一部分,因为物种没有足够的时间进化和生存。更令人担忧的是,该报告指出,“目前人类还没有切实可行的方法来逆转海洋酸化,而这些酸性更强的条件将持续数万年。” 

rbe.png
COP26 北欧和冰冻圈展馆的Bellerby 教授在“后果:北海酸化“热点”活动中。

渔业和水产养殖业是挪威的主要产业,将受到影响,因为极地海洋生态系统将在 2°C 或更高的温度下发生变化,“一年中几个月的海冰消失,根本没有多年海冰,海洋变暖、酸化和清新。”

该报告向政府、行业和其他利益相关者、个人选民和消费者表明,接近 1.5°C 或更低的全球温度可以限制冰冻圈的上述动态,并且“在物理、技术、经济和环境上”是可行的,尽管这将取决于国际
社会的社会接受度和政治意愿。
 

参考资料:

与 COP26 和
冰冻圈展馆相关的活动和页面的链接:

https://www.facebook.com/COP26CryospherePavilion
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCr_TPYUAyh13kVbQjzVKh0g  
https://www.twitch.tv/cop26cryospherepavilion
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXpj1q59mrsT5cOuyagk97Q

下载 2021 年冰冻圈状况报告最后更新 05.11.2021


State of the Cryosphere 2021 Report

Some may have never heard of the term Cryosphere, though most know where the Earth is covered by ice and snow either seasonally or year-round. Climate change is happening in the Cryosphere faster and more dramatically than anywhere else on earth. The first State of the Cryosphere report, reviewed and supported by nearly 50 leading cryosphere scientists and with over half of them Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) authors, has been released and will come out annually every year until 2030.

cop26.jpg
Illustration photo from iccinet.org.
 

Prof. Richard Bellerby, Chief Scientist Climate and Oceans at the Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA) and Professor at East China Normal University is a signatory of the report and Scientific Reviewer of Chapter 6 of the report, covering polar ocean acidification, warming and freshening. 

Prof. Bellerby presented his findings from the report at four different events at the Nordic and Cryosphere Pavilions at COP26 (relevant links to events and pages below). 

“It is clear that rapid changes are underway, across all spheres, in the polar oceans. Without immediate reductions in net CO2 emissions, these polar systems will be unrecognisable within our lifetimes, and will take millennia to return to pristine conditions,” prof. Bellerby said while attending COP26.

Take home understandings

The report clarifies different dynamics happening in the Cryosphere and summarizes the catastrophic impacts that will occur with the currently implemented country commitments or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and policies. 

The take home understandings from cryosphere scientists as stated in the report include:

  • These cryosphere changes, if allowed to continue, will be permanent on all human timescales;
  • Many, perhaps most of these essentially permanent changes would be triggered already by the 2°C maximum temperature rise in the Paris Agreement, but could be slowed or possibly averted if we remain close to the aspirational 1.5°C target; and
  • The impacts, including loss and damage in human communities, are global and overwhelming in scale.

Recovery times for all the dynamics are also specified in the report, and not shockingly, “all of these dynamics except Arctic sea ice require a return to pre-industrial temperatures – or below – to enable at least some level of meaningful recovery.”

The different dynamics presently taking place in the Cryosphere and their estimated recovery times as made evident in the report are:

  • Polar ocean acidification, warming and freshening → 50,000–70,000 years
  • Ice sheets and sea-level rise → More than 10,000 years
  • Mountain glaciers and snow → Several hundred to over a thousand years
  • Permafrost → Several thousand years
  • Arctic sea ice → Decades to centuries

Ocean acidification makes life more difficult

According to the report, “ocean acidification will harm key organisms such as marine gastropods and pteropods, sea urchins, clams, and crabs” because ocean acidification makes life more difficult for shell-building animals (made of calcium carbonate) and all polar water-dwelling organisms that have adapted to stable conditions in pH for several million years. The rate at which acidification occurs is part of the problem because species do not have enough time to evolve and survive. What is more alarming is that the report states that “there is currently no practical way for humans to reverse ocean acidification, and these more acidic conditions will persist for tens of thousands of years.” 

rbe.png
Prof. Bellerby at the Nordic and Cryosphere Pavilions at COP26 in the event ‘Consequences: Acidification “Hot Spots” in the North Sea’.

Fisheries and aquaculture, major industries in Norway, would be impacted, as polar marine ecosystems would be altered at 2°C or higher from “the combination of sea ice loss for several months of the year, no multi-year sea ice at all, ocean warming, acidification and freshening.”

The report indicates to governments, industry and other stakeholders, to the individual voter and consumer, that a global temperature close to 1.5°C or lower can limit the abovementioned dynamics on the Cryosphere and is “physically, technologically, economically and environmentally” feasible, though it will depend
on societal acceptance and political will of the world community.
 

Referanse:

Links to the events and pages related to COP26 and the
Cryosphere Pavilion:

https://www.facebook.com/COP26CryospherePavilion
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCr_TPYUAyh13kVbQjzVKh0g 
https://www.twitch.tv/cop26cryospherepavilion
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXpj1q59mrsT5cOuyagk97Q

Download the State of the Cryosphere 2021 Report.Last updated 05.11.2021

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